A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
